Friday, July 10, 2009

Predictions for UFC 100

Tonight looks to be the biggest UFC show ever. And what better show than UFC 100. Two title matches, The Ultimate Fighter coaches collide and much more. Below are my predictions for what looks to be a great night in MMA. We'll start first with the preliminary bouts.

Matt Grice Vs. Shannon Gugerty

Name: Matt Grice
Height: 5' 8" (173 cm)
Weight: 155 (70 kg)
Record: 10-2-0

"The Real One"

Name: Shannon Gugerty
Height: 5' 10" (178 cm)
Weight: 155 (70 kg)
Record: 11-3-0

Both of these fighters are coming off tough losses in their last fights. Matt Grice to Matt Veach via TKO at Ultimate Fight Night on Spike and Shannon Gugerty to Spencer Fisher via a choke submission at UFC 90.
Neither fighter has a winning record in the UFC but their overall records definitely show the potential both fighters have. Grice came into the UFC with a 9-0 record so with 2 losses in his last 3 fights he needs a win to stick around in the UFC. Matt is a four time Oklahoma state wrestling champion in college as well as a three time outstanding wrestler. Shannon, however, is a Brown Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and loves to choke his opponent out. This match should be chuck full of takedowns but where I think Grice would take you down and lay on you for 5 minutes, Gugerty will go for submission after submission with his BJJ background. I give the edge to Gugerty.

Prediction: Gugerty by submission

CB Dollaway Vs. Tom Lawlor

Name: CB Dollaway
Height: 6' 2" (188 cm)
Weight: 185 (84 kg)
Record: 9-2-0

"The Doberman"

Name: Tom Lawlor
Height: 6' 0" (183 cm)
Weight: 185 (84 kg)
Record: 5-1-0, 1 NC


These two men have a lot in common. And that's what scares me about this fight. Both Dollaway and Lawlor made a name for themselves on the Ultimate Fighter TV Series on Spike, both men were great collegiate wrestlers and both are coming off big wins. Dollaway over Mike Massenzio via TKO at UFC 92 and Lawlor over Kyle Kingsbury at The Ultimate Fight Finale. All of these things make it sound like it should be a great fight, so why am I scared? For the exact same reasons that should make it good. I see this fight going one of two ways. Since both men are great wrestlers they will try and stay on their feet the whole match and knock the other guy out, or each round someone will get a take down and just lay on their opponent like most wrestlers do. I've seen both of these men fight and I have to say Dollaway definitely has that killer instinct so I'm giving him the edge in this one.

Prediction: Dollaway by Decision

Dong Hyun Kim Vs. TJ Grant

Name: Dong Hyun Kim
Height: 6' 1" (185 cm)
Weight: 170 (77 kg)
Record: 11-0-1, 1 NC

"Stun Gun"

Name: TJ Grant
Height: 5' 10" (178 cm)
Weight: 170 (77 kg)
Record: 14-2-0

TJ Grant is coming off a huge win against Ryo Chonen at UFC 97 via split decision. That was his UFC debut and he wants to go out and show everyone it was not a fluke. Grant is another former wrestling champion and Brown belt in Jiu-Jitsu. However I give the edge to Kim in this fight. He brings something to the UFC that no one else does, a forth degree black belt in Judo. Now you may ask yourself, how Judo really helps in MMA considering many Judo throws and take downs involve using you opponents Gi which are not worn in the UFC? The answer is many UFC fighters have Zero training in Judo at all for that very same reason. You sick a fourth degree black belt on someone who doesn't know what to expect and you can almost guarantee a win. Besides his name is Dong, how can you not go with that?

Prediction: Dong via TKO

Jon Jones Vs. Jake O'Brien

Name: Jon Jones
Height: 6' 4" (193 cm)
Weight: 205 (93 kg)
Record: 8-0-0
Jon Jones

Name: Jake O'Brien
Height: 6' 3" (191 cm)
Weight: 205 (93 kg)
Record: 11-2-0
Jake O'Brien

This could be the sleeper match of the night for me. This should be a very interesting match. We'll start first with Jake O'Brien. A longtime UFC fighter with a record of 5-2 in the UFC. O'Brien started out strong in the UFC winning his first four fights on his way to what seemed like an inevitable title shot. However injuries and two consecutive losses to both Andrei Arlovski and Cain Velasquez took him right out of contention. He dropped down to a more optimal weight class and won his last fight via split decision over Christian Willisch. O'Brien is working to get back towards the top in a new weight division. Jon Jones however is one of the youngest fighters in the UFC at 21 years old and is undefeated not only in the UFC but in his career. He is 2-0 in UFC but he has not shown he can finish a fight. Both of his wins in the UFC have come via decision over Andre Gusmao and Ultimate Fighter 1 star Stephen Bonner in his last fight. This fight is very hard for me to call. Its too close to call, if I could push I would so instead I am going to give the edge to Jones because he's from Endicott, NY and thats where I live. Gotta root for the hometown boy!

Prediction: Jones via Decision

Mac Danzig Vs. Jim Miller

Name: Mac Danzig
Height: 5' 8" (173 cm)
Weight: 155 (70 kg)
Record: 19-6-1

Name: Jim Miller
Height: 5' 8" (173 cm)
Weight: 155 (70 kg)
Record: 13-2-0
Jim Miller

Both of these guys are coming off tough losses. Danzig is actually coming off 2 in a row to both Josh Neer and Clay Guida both at Ultimate fight night matches on Spike. Jim Miller is coming off a losing effort to Gray Maynard. Both will be looking for the win here because the loser might well be out of UFC for a while. In the UFC if you aren't winning you aren't fighting. Miller is a Brown belt in BJJ and Danzig has held numerous MMA championships with other organizations. Another tough one to call but I think Danzig knows if he doesn't win this one its three strikes and your out. With that in his mind I give him the edge.

Prediction: Mac Danzig by Decision

Mark Coleman Vs. Stephan Bonnar

Name: Mark Coleman
Height: 6' 1" (185 cm)
Weight: 205 (93 kg)
Record: 15-9-0
Mark Coleman
"The Hammer"

Name: Stephan Bonnar
Height: 6' 4" (193 cm)
Weight: 205 (93 kg)
Record: 14-5-0

"American Psycho"

This is another interesting match up. Coleman at 44 years of age is definitely past his prime in MMA. And prior to his last match, a loss to Mauricio "Shogun" Rua at UFC 93 had not been in the octagon since UFC 18. Stephen Bonnar though, also coming off a loss has never really lived up to his potential. We've seen glimpses of greatness from him but he cant seem to get it all together. However with Coleman's age and lack of recent fights I give this one to Bonnar.

Prediction: Stephen Bonnar by TKO

Yoshihiro Akiyama Vs. Alan Belcher

Name: Yoshihiro Akiyama
Height: 5' 10" (178 cm)
Weight: 185 (84 kg)
Record: 12-1-0, 2 NC

Name: Alan Belcher
Height: 6' 2" (188 cm)
Weight: 185 (84 kg)
Record: 13-4-0
Alan Belcher
"The Talent"

This will be Akiyama's debut in the octagon. He is a big name in Japan looking for stardom in the UFC. And what is his specialty? Judo. Thats right another Judo practitioner making his way into the UFC. Belcher however is no slouch. He is coming off two big wins in his last two fights over Dennis Kang and Ed Herman. He is a well rounded fighter with a Brown Belt in BJJ. I'm giving Belcher the advantage in this fight because of his experience edge in the UFC with 8 of his 17 career fights coming in the octagon.

Prediction: Alan Belcher by decision

Dan Henderson Vs. Michael Bisping

Name: Dan Henderson
Height: 6' 1" (185 cm)
Weight: 205 (93 kg)
Record: 24-7-0
Dan Henderson

Name: Michael Bisping
Height: 6' 2" (188 cm)
Weight: 185 (84 kg)
Record: 18-1-0
Michael Bisping
"The Count"

Here we have the Clash of the Coaches. Experience vs Youth. And also a nice guy vs a total jackass. I absolutely hate Michael Bisping. He has a horrible attitude and is just a complete jerk. What he does have however are a lot of amatuer accomplishments including: 1995 Silver medal – world jiu-jitsu championships; 5 x British kickboxing champion; God knows how many times British Sport jiu-jitsu champion.
Accomplishments in pro competition? Cage Rage Champion, Cage Warriors Champion, FX3 Champion, TUF 3 Champion, Coach on TUF9. He's also coming off three straight wins, most recently against Chris Lebin at UFC 89. Dan Hendo Henderson has his own list of accomplishments though including: Former PRIDE Middleweight and Welterweight Champion (1st fighter in history to hold both belts simultaneously), 1992 and 1996 United States Olympic Greco-Roman Wrestling team member, 1988 USA Junior Freestyle champion, 1988 USA Junior Greco-Roman champion, 3-time USA Senior Greco-Roman champion, 3-time USA University Greco-Roman champion, 1990 USA FILA Junior World Greco-Roman champion, 1990 Amateur Wrestling News Freshman All-American, 1990-91 U.S. Olympic Festival champion, 1991 and 1993-94 University Nationals champion, 1993-94 U.S. Nationals champion, UFC 17 middleweight tournament winner, RINGS 1999 King of Kings Absolute tournament winner, coach on season nine of The Ultimate Fighter. This match has a shot at fight of the night. I believe these two will put on one hell of a show. I'm giving the edge to Hendo for his experience and also because I really want to see Bisping lose.

Prediction: Dan Henderson by submission

Jon Fitch Vs. Paulo Thiago

Name: Jon Fitch
Height: 6' 0" (183 cm)
Weight: 170 (77 kg)
Record: 22-3-0, 1 NC
Jon Fitch

Name: Paulo Thiago
Height: 5' 11" (180 cm)
Weight: 170 (77 kg)
Record: 11-0-0
Paulo Thiago

Jon Fitch is one of the best welterweights in the UFC today. He has 10 fights in the UFC and has lost only one and that loss was to Welterweight Champ Georges St. Pierre. His most recent win came over Akihiro Gono at UFC 94. He also has wins against Brock Larson, Diego Sanchez, Josh Burkman and Thiago Alves just to name a few. He is a black belt in BJJ and a former freestyle wrestler. His only downfall if any is inability to finish off his opponents. 6 of his 10 UFC bouts have had to go to the judges scorecards. Paulo Thiago is an undefeated fighter with one match in the UFC where he defeated TUF 1 fighter Josh Koscheck. He also has a black belt in BJJ and is still a police officer in Brazil. I think Paulo has a bright future in the UFC and a win over FItch would be huge for his career. Not knowing to much about him yet though I have to go with Fitch in this one.

Prediction: Jon Fitch by decision

Georges St-Pierre Vs. Thiago Alves

Name: Georges St-Pierre
Height: 5' 10" (178 cm)
Weight: 170 (77 kg)
Record: 18-2-0
Georges St-Pierre

Name: Thiago Alves
Height: 5' 9" (175 cm)
Weight: 170 (77 kg)
Record: 22-4-0
Thiago Alves
"Pit bull"

This is the match that should be fight of the night. We have two of the best fighters in the world today in this one. Georges has wins over such fighters as Matt Hughes, Matt Serra, John Fitch, BJ Penn and many other big names in this sport. He is one of the best all around fighters in the sport. Just listen to him describe his training. "I started martial arts when I was six, doing Kyokushin karate. When I started training for MMA, I started wrestling with the national team and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu with Nova Uniao. I now train in wrestling, BJJ, Muay Thai, and boxing. When I first met Stephane Patry and his team I decided I wanted to become a champion in this sport." Thiago Alves has won his last 7 fights in the UFC. He is a purple belt in BJJ and a multiple time Muay Thai champion. If Georges takes him lightly the Pitbull will leave with the belt. I give the advantage to St. Pierre though. He took an opponent lightly once before, in Matt Serra, which cost him his title. Now that he has it back I dont see him doing that again.

Prediction: Georges St. Pierre via TKO

Brock Lesnar Vs. Frank Mir

Name: Brock Lesnar
Height: 6' 3" (191 cm)
Weight: 265 (120 kg)
Record: 3-1-0
Brock Lesnar

Name: Frank Mir
Height: 6' 3" (191 cm)
Weight: 240 (109 kg)
Record: 12-3-0
Frank Mir

This is a rematch from UFC 81. It was Lesnars debut fight in the UFC and depending on who you ask he was screwed in that fight. Check out the fight below and tell me what you think. This time though, the belt is on the line and Lesnar not only wants to keep the belt but get revenge on Mir. Lesnar is a multiple time wrestling champion both amateur and professional with the WWE. Mir is an accomplished athlete who is looking to show Lesnar like he did before that he is the better man. Personally I want Lesnar to win and I think if it came down to a slugfest there is no question that Lesnar would win. But for some reason I see this fight going the same exact way the first one did. Lesnar will take control with his fists and go in for the kill and Mir will catch him in a submission.

Prediction: Mir via Submission

So there you have it. Those are my predictions for UFC 100. You agree? Disagree? let me know. PS, not sure why but some of the fighters photos wouldn't post which is really weird considering the worked just fine yesterday. Please enjoy the original Lesnar vs. Mir fight below and check back later this evening for results.

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